2025年房市转折点已至：“买还是卖”，别错过最佳时期

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant transformation, entering a phase of contraction and structural optimization after nearly 30 years of rapid growth, with a notable decline in property prices and sales volume [1][2][3]. Market Trends - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 12.6% to 1.01 billion square meters, and sales revenue fell by 15.2% to 9.5 trillion yuan, marking the lowest levels since 2015 [2]. - The proportion of real estate in GDP has dropped from nearly 30% at its peak to 17.2% in 2024, with expectations to further decline to around 15% in 2025 [2]. - The average price of a typical three-bedroom apartment in Beijing fell from 58,000 yuan per square meter in 2023 to 52,000 yuan per square meter in early 2025, reflecting a cumulative decline of 10.3% [1]. Demographic Changes - The population aged 65 and above accounted for 16.8% in the first quarter of 2025, while the proportion of the population aged 0-14 decreased to 10.9%, indicating a demographic shift [2]. - A projected natural population decrease of approximately 3.5 million in 2025 represents the largest decline since 1962 [2]. Financial Indicators - The household leverage ratio reached 131.5%, nearing the warning line of developed countries, with mortgage debt constituting 71.3% of total household liabilities [2]. - The average asset-liability ratio of the top 100 real estate companies reached 81.5%, indicating heightened financial stress within the sector [3]. Government Policy - The government has shifted its stance, emphasizing "housing for living, not speculation" and promoting stable development in the real estate market [5]. - The 2025 government report anticipates the addition of over 3 million units of affordable housing nationwide [5]. Investment Landscape - The rental yield for residential properties in first-tier cities was only 1.8% in the first quarter of 2025, lower than the yield on 10-year government bonds, indicating reduced investment attractiveness [7]. - The market is experiencing significant differentiation, with core areas in first-tier cities seeing slight price increases, while many third and fourth-tier cities face price declines exceeding 15% [7][8]. Emerging Opportunities - The long-term rental apartment market grew by 27.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and investment in senior housing increased by 35.2%, highlighting new growth areas within the real estate sector [8].