7月收官，房地产市场全面转向，购房者迎来新风向

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation with the implementation of new policies aimed at revitalizing the sector after years of fluctuations and challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing increased by only 0.9% year-on-year, reaching 573 million square meters, while sales revenue grew by 1.2% to 5.12 trillion yuan [3]. - The previous rescue policies initiated at the end of 2024, which included lowering down payment ratios and preferential loan rates, have not met expectations, leading to renewed downward pressure on the market [3][4]. Group 2: New Policy Measures - The upcoming rescue policies set to be implemented in August will focus on four areas: credit, taxation, land, and affordable housing construction [4]. - A nationwide unified standard for "recognizing housing but not loans" will be introduced to lower financing costs for homebuyers [4]. - The exemption period for personal housing transfer value-added tax will be extended from two years to five years, and adjustments will be made to the calculation of value-added tax for second-hand housing transactions [4]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Market Response - A special fund of 200 billion yuan will be established to support the digital transformation of real estate companies, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and market responsiveness [6]. - The real estate sector's digital penetration rate is currently at 32.5%, significantly lower than the 65% average in developed countries, indicating substantial room for improvement [6]. - Following the announcement of new policies, the real estate sector index on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 3.7%, reflecting positive market sentiment [6]. Group 4: Impact on Different Buyer Segments - The "recognizing housing but not loans" policy will lower barriers for first-time homebuyers, while the extension of the value-added tax exemption will reduce costs for those upgrading their homes [7]. - Investment housing restrictions may be relaxed in some cities, although the fundamental principle of "housing is for living, not for speculation" remains unchanged [7]. Group 5: Industry Outlook and Trends - Approximately 15% of small and medium-sized real estate companies may face bankruptcy or restructuring risks in the second half of 2025, leading to increased industry concentration [7]. - The market share of large real estate companies is expected to rise to over 65% due to their financial and management advantages [7]. - Long-term policies are shifting from short-term stimulus to sustainable regulation, emphasizing the importance of housing as a living space and increasing support for green buildings and smart communities [7][8].