美元进入贬值通道，15万亿资金回流中国，人民币升值压力增大

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which he argues is necessary to stimulate the economy amid rising fiscal deficits and debt levels [1][5][9] - Trump's actions are seen as a challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for maintaining the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [7] - The US federal debt is projected to exceed $36 trillion by 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 120%, leading to increased costs of issuing government bonds in a high-interest-rate environment [9][11] Group 2 - There is a significant capital inflow into China, with $1.2 trillion entering the market in the first half of 2025, driven by a strong economic performance and the attractiveness of RMB assets [13][15] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of 2025, reflecting its growing appeal among international investors [17][19] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating globally, with the RMB accounting for 53% of cross-border transactions in the first half of 2025, surpassing the USD for the first time [20][21] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China is implementing measures to balance internal and external economic pressures, including adjusting reserve requirements and promoting RMB internationalization [22] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $115.1 billion in the first half of 2025, providing a buffer against external shocks [22]