Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-27 10:36Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a gradual improvement in management, channel, and product cycles, indicating a potential turning point after recent performance fluctuations due to internal adjustments and external market changes [1] Management Cycle - The company began organizational restructuring in the second half of 2022, aiming for normalized operations by 2024, which enhances supply chain advantages through production line integration [1] - The current organizational structure leverages manufacturing scale advantages, focusing on improving production efficiency, which is a core driver for profitability improvement [1] Channel Cycle - Despite pressure on traditional bakery channels, there remains significant coverage potential, with a strategic focus on "channel first" to adapt to market changes and seize development opportunities [2] - The rise of membership-based supermarkets and the transformation of traditional channels present new opportunities, with the company expected to benefit from these channel shifts [2] Product Cycle - The company anticipates a 20%+ CAGR in cream revenue from 2019 to 2024, driven by domestic substitution, consumption upgrades, and emerging channel opportunities [2] - In the frozen baking segment, strong demand and the adoption of overseas single product series strategies are expected to support long-term growth, enhancing the company's competitive advantage as a comprehensive baking product service provider [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.448 billion, 5.127 billion, and 5.858 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 15.3%, and 14.3% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 350 million, 440 million, and 530 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 24.6%, and 22.0% respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 22, 18, and 15 times [2]