报告：我国经济增长保持韧性 下半年扩大内需是关键

Core Viewpoint - The key to maintaining economic growth resilience in the second half of the year lies in expanding domestic demand, with fiscal expenditure being crucial [1][2][5]. Economic Performance - In the second quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly weaker than the first quarter but still above the annual target of 5% [2][5]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for the second quarter was 3.9%, with the GDP deflator index remaining negative for nine consecutive quarters, indicating significant demand pressure [2][5]. Structural Analysis - Industrial production remains robust, with industrial added value growth consistently exceeding GDP growth [5]. - Exports have shown resilience, particularly to regions outside the U.S., despite a notable decline in exports to the U.S. [5]. - Retail sales growth has improved due to policies supporting trade-in programs, while fixed asset investment has weakened compared to the first quarter [5]. - The real estate market has shifted from signs of stabilization back to contraction, with new housing sales and second-hand home prices declining [5]. Recommendations for Expanding Domestic Demand - Suggestions include utilizing public budget funds and considering the issuance of an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to meet annual fiscal expenditure growth targets [1][5]. - Emphasis on urban renewal and government-led public investment as a breakthrough point for expanding domestic demand [5]. - Proposals to further lower policy interest rates to guide market rates downwards and stimulate both supply and demand to help the real estate market recover [5]. Currency and Exchange Rate Insights - The report discusses the importance of achieving a reasonable valuation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate, emphasizing that it should not be excessively high or low [6][7]. - The depreciation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate since the first quarter of 2022 is attributed to persistent domestic demand shortages [6][7]. - Recommendations include implementing timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies to address demand deficiencies and maintaining a flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism to avoid excessive distortions [7].