【UNFX课堂】美联储前瞻：七月按兵不动，但降息已在路上

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the July 30 meeting, primarily due to strong employment reports and uncertainties regarding inflation from presidential tariff policies [2] - The Fed is cautious about lowering rates due to past criticism of underestimating post-pandemic inflation, which surged to 9% in 2022, and is wary of unclear inflation prospects [2][3] - Consumer confidence is weakening, and spending is stagnating, indicating pressure on household purchasing power and concerns about the cooling job market [3] Group 2 - The foundation for potential rate cuts is being established, with inflation expected to decline later this year as tariff-related price adjustments are seen as one-time events [3][4] - Market expectations suggest a possible rate cut in September, but the UNFX remains skeptical, predicting December as a more likely timeframe for a rate cut, potentially by 50 basis points if evidence of economic weakness emerges [4] - The dollar may find short-term support from strong Treasury yields, despite pressure from rumors regarding the potential dismissal of Powell, with key employment data and tariff agreements being critical risk events [5][6]