楼市传出消息，事关很多人钱包，没买房的人偷着乐！

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant changes, with a decline in property prices and sales, creating both challenges and opportunities for buyers and developers [1][3][12]. Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 14.5%, marking the largest decline since 2015 [3]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw new home transaction volumes drop by 18.3% month-on-month, while the number of second-hand homes listed increased by 24.7% [3]. - The average price of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 2.1% in Q2, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 1.8% and third- and fourth-tier cities dropped by 3.4% [5]. Policy Changes - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development continues to emphasize "housing for living, not speculation," while increasing support for first-time and improved housing buyers [3]. - The average interest rate for first-time home loans dropped to 3.9% and 4.2% for second homes, significantly lowering borrowing costs [3]. - Recent policies from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission allow for further reductions in mortgage rates, with some areas removing purchase restrictions [9]. Demographic Trends - The proportion of the population aged 60 and above has reached 21.3%, with a declining birth rate of 7.2‰, leading to increased demand for small apartments and retirement housing [9]. - Cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu are experiencing more population inflow compared to traditional first-tier cities, altering the real estate landscape [9]. Developer Challenges - The average debt-to-asset ratio for the top 50 real estate companies has surged to 78.3%, with many companies facing credit rating downgrades and resorting to price cuts to generate cash flow [7]. - The land auction revenue across 300 cities has decreased by 18.7%, with a 26.3% auction failure rate, indicating a cautious approach from developers, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities [11]. Opportunities for Buyers - For first-time homebuyers, the current market presents a favorable opportunity with falling prices, lower loan rates, and various developer incentives [11]. - The average housing price-to-income ratio in 35 major cities has decreased by 0.8, making home purchasing less burdensome [7].