经济增长放缓，企业开始裁员，俄罗斯“薪资竞赛”或将很快结束

Core Viewpoint - The rapid wage growth period in Russia, referred to as the "salary race," is likely coming to an end, as indicated by recent surveys showing negative wage plans among companies [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Trends - The Russian labor market, previously characterized as a "job seekers' market," is approaching a new development phase, with actual income growth rates for employees exceeding 15% for 2023-2024 [3]. - The unemployment rate in Russia has decreased to a historical low of 2.3%, while employers are competing for skilled talent, leading to increased employee turnover and wage hikes [3][4]. - Despite significant wage increases, labor costs in Russia remain relatively low, with labor compensation as a percentage of GDP declining, indicating that productivity growth is outpacing wage growth [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Employment - The current employment situation is a result of slowing economic growth, influenced by the Central Bank's tightening monetary policy and increased competition leading companies to lower product prices [5]. - There is evidence of layoffs across multiple sectors, although the scale is still difficult to assess, with initial impacts primarily seen in the IT sector [5][6]. - Official statistics from the Russian Federal State Statistics Service have not shown drastic changes in the labor market, maintaining a stable employment level, but experts caution that these figures may lag behind actual conditions [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The previous period of rapid wage growth and job seeker advantages may be ending, prompting companies to adopt more cautious human resource policies in response to economic slowdowns [6]. - The depth and duration of changes in the labor market remain uncertain, with ongoing monitoring by the government and businesses to adjust employment support measures as needed [6].