TYN(SZ:000591) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-27 23:18Core Viewpoint - The European Commission's initiation of a second round of anti-dumping investigations against Chinese solar glass is perceived as a potential opportunity for the domestic solar industry rather than a setback, as it may stimulate internal demand and production [2][4][14]. Industry Overview - In 2023, over 70% of global solar glass production capacity is sourced from China, with four out of the five largest manufacturers being Chinese companies, highlighting the country's dominance in this sector [2]. - The domestic solar installation capacity is projected to exceed 150 GW in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total for the entire previous year, with an expected growth of over 30% for the entire year of 2025 [5]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The shift towards rooftop solar installations is gaining momentum, driven by government subsidies and incentives, making it financially attractive for households and businesses to adopt solar technology [7][12]. - The National Energy Administration has been promoting county-level rooftop solar pilot programs since 2021, with new subsidy policies introduced in March 2024 to further encourage household solar installations [7]. Business Adaptation - Companies that previously focused on exports are now pivoting to domestic sales, with some manufacturers reporting a complete shift in their business model to cater to local projects [9]. - Despite the pressure on profit margins due to increased competition in the domestic market, companies are adapting by optimizing production and focusing on high-efficiency components and energy storage solutions [10]. Rural Market Trends - Rural areas are emerging as significant markets for solar installations, with local governments and communities actively participating in solar projects to enhance collective economic benefits [12]. - The financial viability of solar installations in rural settings is compelling, with households able to recoup their investments within five years, making it an attractive option amid rising living costs [12]. Strategic Implications - The EU's actions may inadvertently serve as a catalyst for China's domestic solar market, pushing the industry towards a dual circulation model that emphasizes both internal and external demand [15]. - As domestic installations increase, the industry faces a strategic decision on whether to continue exporting or to establish its own electricity market rules, potentially altering the competitive landscape with the EU [17].