美联储降息救市！7月27日，今日深夜的四大消息已全面来袭

Core Points - The article discusses the ongoing economic crisis in the U.S., highlighting the persistent high yields on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the significant national debt interest payments, which consume a quarter of federal tax revenue [1] - The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies is intensifying, with differing opinions on maintaining or lowering rates [3][5] - Political pressures are mounting, particularly from former President Trump, who is demanding significant interest rate cuts, while the selection process for the next Fed chair has begun [5][7] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, signaling a "long-term high interest rate era" [1] - The national debt has reached $37 trillion, with interest payments consuming 25% of federal tax revenue [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to a monthly high of 4.487% following political developments [7] Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Dallas Fed President Logan advocates for maintaining the 4.25% interest rate range for at least 6 to 12 months to ensure economic restrictions [3] - Fed Governor Waller argues that the Fed can overlook tariff impacts on inflation, suggesting a risk of falling behind if rates are not cut in July [5] - The market shows a low probability of rate cuts, with only 2.6% for July and 58% for September [5] Group 3: Political Influences - Trump's demand for a 300 basis point rate cut highlights the political pressure on the Fed, with significant implications for refinancing costs [5][7] - The selection process for the next Fed chair has begun, with Trump's economic advisor being a potential candidate [5][7] - The political landscape is affecting global markets, with the EU preparing countermeasures against U.S. tariffs [7] Group 4: Market Reactions - Market risk aversion is increasing, with gold prices rising over 1% to a five-week high of $3,401.41 per ounce [9] - The U.S. dollar index has fallen by 0.65%, dropping below the 98 mark [9] - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that Trump's proposed rate cuts would have minimal impact on the overall debt interest costs [10]