金瑞期货：下半年贵金属市场波动加剧但仍有上行潜力

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend followed by high-level fluctuations, influenced by macroeconomic policy changes [1] - The price of gold was re-evaluated as a core safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, recovering quickly after a brief decline due to the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April [1] - The gold-silver ratio initially rose and then fell, peaking above 100 due to heightened inflation concerns and uncertainty in global economic prospects, before correcting as market sentiment improved [1] Group 2 - In the second half of the year, expectations of a weak U.S. economy and a clearer outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with a declining dollar index, create a favorable macro environment for precious metal prices [2] - Gold is expected to benefit from ongoing uncertainties related to trade tensions, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical factors, which will enhance its safe-haven appeal [2] - Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with ongoing conflicts and instability in various regions, contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3 - In 2025, silver is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap of 4,000 tons, but high inventory levels may limit its commodity attributes [3] - The supply growth of silver is expected to slow to 2% year-on-year due to high base effects and reduced new silver mining projects, while industrial demand is forecasted to decline by approximately 1% [3] - The precious metals market is anticipated to have upward potential in the second half of 2025, with gold prices expected to range between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to range between $32 and $38 per ounce [3]