施罗德投资：市场不确定性弥漫 债券仍为有利收益来源

Group 1 - Schroders Investment remains optimistic about the stock market outlook, but is cautious about the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. due to the lagging effects of tariffs on the real economy [1] - The primary constraint on the stock market is the rising debt levels resulting from increased government spending, which affects the bond market's capacity [1] - Despite rising debt levels, Schroders still views bonds as a favorable source of returns rather than merely a diversification tool, with gold being the preferred option for portfolio diversification [1][3] Group 2 - Recent expansionary fiscal policies have supported nominal economic growth and corporate earnings, while populist policies may have a positive impact on the stock market [2] - The greatest threat to the economic outlook is the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with the effective tariff rate expected to rise to 12%, the highest level since World War II [2] - The market's reaction to new tariff threats has been muted, indicating that investors may be underestimating the potential for significant tariff increases by the Trump administration [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration continues to monitor the bond market, recognizing the importance of maintaining financial market stability, with inflation expectations remaining under control [3] - A notable steepening of the yield curve has been observed, with long-term bond yields rising faster than short-term yields, reflecting market concerns about fiscal spending [3] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the bond market, and the succession plan for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be a focal point for investors [3] Group 4 - The dollar maintains unmatched liquidity in the global financial system, prompting many institutions to reassess their dollar allocation strategies [4] - Despite the high exposure to U.S. assets, there is a growing recognition of the need for diversification in investment portfolios [4] - Investors should focus on medium-term trends rather than overreacting to daily news, as the political and economic consensus has shifted, affecting the correlation between different asset classes [4]