油品：柴油带动炼厂利润上行，关注欧盟最新制裁细节

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in oil prices have been observed, with a significant increase in diesel profits since June, leading to the highest comprehensive profits for European and American refineries this year [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global supply is increasing as OPEC enters a production increase phase and non-OPEC production gradually ramps up, leading to a stockpiling cycle [1] - The near-term European diesel market remains tight due to various factors, with refinery operating rates expected to be revised upwards for Q3 [1] - Diesel consumption in Europe has seen a decline of 80,000 barrels per day (1.7%) in April, while non-road diesel demand has increased by 160,000 barrels per day (15.7%) [10] Refinery Closures and Capacity - In 2023, European and American refineries are facing closures totaling 800,000 barrels per day, with several refineries already shut down or planned for closure [10] - A power outage in the Iberian Peninsula led to the forced shutdown of over 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity [10] Import Trends - As of the third week of July, European diesel imports remain 500,000 barrels per day lower than the same period last year, primarily due to low loading volumes from the Middle East [11] - The EU's new sanctions against Russia will impact approximately 300,000 barrels per day of diesel imports, tightening supply further [12] Market Outlook - The current low inventory levels and unreturned imports suggest a favorable medium-term outlook for European diesel, although short-term uncertainties remain [13] - The overall oil market is expected to remain in a fluctuating state, with refinery operating expectations revised upwards due to high diesel profits, despite an overall surplus in crude oil [14]