反内卷，光伏的拐点近了

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is showing signs of recovery after a period of downturn, with expectations for a potential turning point supported by recent market data and industry events [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June 27, the photovoltaic ETF has increased by 13%, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. also seeing stock price increases despite reporting losses in the first half of the year [1]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic PV installations reached 212.21 GW, a year-on-year increase of 107%, although this was influenced by a rush to install before potential policy changes [4]. - The export performance of PV products has been mixed, with silicon wafer exports down by 7.5%, battery cell exports up by 74.4%, and module exports down by 2.82%. Overall, the export value of PV products has declined for two consecutive years, with a 26% drop in the first half of 2025 [4]. Group 2: Production and Pricing - The production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules has shown signs of contraction, with polysilicon production at 596,000 tons, down 43.8% year-on-year, and silicon wafer production at 316.0 GW, down 21.4% [3]. - The average prices of key PV products have significantly decreased compared to their peak prices in 2020, with declines of 88.3% for polysilicon, 89.6% for silicon wafers, 80.8% for battery cells, and 66.4% for modules, severely impacting profit margins [3]. - In Q1 2025, 31 A-share listed PV companies reported a total net loss of 12.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 274.3% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Solutions - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) described the industry's development in the first half of 2025 as "difficult" and emphasized the need for capacity reduction and control to address the oversupply situation [2][5]. - The recent seminar held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association highlighted the importance of reducing energy consumption in polysilicon production, with proposed revisions to energy consumption standards aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [6]. - The industry is exploring new application scenarios, such as integrating PV with hydropower projects, which could create significant market demand and alleviate competitive pressures [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The National Forestry and Grassland Administration, along with other agencies, has outlined a plan to add 253 GW of new PV capacity by 2030, which could help mitigate the current oversupply of polysilicon and stimulate demand across the entire supply chain [10][11]. - The combination of capacity control measures and the expansion of application scenarios is expected to bring the PV industry closer to a supply-demand balance, although it has not yet fully emerged from its downturn [12].