国信证券：低效供应链倒逼行业变革 餐饮工业化迎来双轮驱动

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese catering supply chain industry is undergoing an efficiency revolution, driven by the increasing demand for standardized and efficient supply chains due to rising consumer expectations and market growth [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Since 2020, the capital market's interest in the catering supply chain sector has been rising, with the Wande seasoning/prepared food concept index growing by 88% and 82% from March 2019 to May 2021 [1] - The catering market is primarily composed of small and medium-sized operators, with a projected chain rate of only 20.1% by 2024, indicating significant room for growth and consolidation [1] Group 2: Key Trends - Pre-prepared Ingredients: The trend towards pre-prepared ingredients represents a shift towards industrialized production in the food sector, with the catering supply chain market size estimated at approximately 2.4 trillion yuan, and the number of processing enterprises expected to reach 890,000 by April 2025 [2] - Catering Snackification: The shift towards snackification reflects changing consumer lifestyles and preferences, with products becoming lighter and more retail-oriented, leading to a 10% growth in community supermarkets and an impressive 76% growth in snack discount stores in 2023 [3] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - The U.S. catering supply chain was valued at approximately $382 billion in 2022, with Sysco achieving $78.8 billion in revenue by 2024 through extensive acquisitions, showcasing the potential for growth in the Chinese market [4] - Japan's frozen prepared food industry has matured, with companies like Kobe Bussan achieving a 12% compound revenue growth through vertical integration, serving as a benchmark for cost-effective franchise models [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The catering supply chain industry is entering a new phase where inefficient producers face significant survival pressure, leading to an expected optimization of supply-side dynamics, favoring leading companies with established capacity and efficiency barriers [5] - Companies that understand consumer needs and adapt to changes are more likely to maintain stability and seize long-term growth opportunities during industry adjustments [5]