债市遇突袭？关注“债市压舱石”：十年国债ETF（511260）

Market Overview - Recent stock market sentiment is very optimistic, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3600 points, marking a new high for the year and the first close above this level since January 2022 [1] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has experienced frequent adjustments, primarily due to a shift in short-term risk preferences, which has suppressed bond market performance [1] - In the short term, bond market fluctuations may arise from emotional changes triggered by significant market themes like the Yajiang project, but the core judgment regarding strong economic production and weak demand remains unchanged [2] - The upcoming key meeting in July is expected to be a critical juncture that could determine whether the market receives a boost [2] Long-term Outlook - In the medium term, as long as the economic fundamentals and liquidity remain stable, the performance of commodities and stocks, despite short-term disturbances, is unlikely to shake the foundation of the bond market [2] - Long-term attention should be paid to changes in inflation expectations [2] Investment Opportunities - For ordinary investors, the increasing volatility in the bond market and declining coupon yields have made bond investments more challenging. Identifying high-cost performance bond assets is crucial, with a focus on the "bond market ballast" of ten-year government bonds, such as the Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) [2] Ten-Year Government Bond ETF - The ten-year government bond is based on national credit, issued by the central government, and has a ten-year maturity. Its annualized return rate is viewed as the "risk-free return rate," serving as a benchmark for pricing various assets [3] - The ten-year bond yield reflects market expectations for future economic trends and is likely to become a safe haven in the current low-interest and high-volatility market environment, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [3] - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is the only ETF tracking the ten-year government bond index in the market, focusing on bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with an average duration of 7.6 years [3] Performance and Advantages of Ten-Year Government Bond ETF - Since its inception, the Ten-Year Government Bond ETF has maintained positive annual returns from 2018 to 2024, with a cumulative return rate of 34.63%, attracting investor interest [3] - The ETF offers several unique advantages: 1. T+0 trading convenience allows for same-day buying and selling, enabling multiple trading opportunities within a day [4] 2. The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest fee among bond ETFs, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [5] 3. Daily publication of the PCF list ensures transparency in holdings, allowing investors to better understand the ETF's investment situation [6] 4. The ETF can be used for pledge repurchase, providing investors with flexible funding options for other investments [7]