Group 1 - Citi reiterated a buy rating for Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) after the company announced a profit warning, expecting net profit for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 279% to 288% [1] - Excluding share-based payment expenses, the adjusted net profit is projected to grow by 282% to 292%, reaching 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion RMB, with revenue expected to increase significantly by 241% to 255%, driven mainly by growth in same-store sales and online sales expansion [1] - Citi believes that the mid-term performance is generally in line with market expectations and exceeds their estimates, primarily due to strong revenue performance [1] Group 2 - Despite a more than 30% pullback from its peak, Lao Pu Gold's current price corresponds to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of only 25.1 times for 2025 and 18.6 times for 2026, indicating attractive valuation [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on the company's online and offline synergy and brand premium capabilities, setting a target price of 1,084 HKD, which corresponds to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 36 times for this year [1]
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