招商宏观：4月制造业投资动能有所减弱 服务消费有望成为新增长点-世界热点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a weakening momentum in manufacturing investment demand, with a need for consumer support for endogenous recovery, and service consumption is expected to become a new growth point [1] - The Politburo meeting at the end of April highlighted that "endogenous power is still weak, and demand remains insufficient," setting higher quality requirements for future economic development [1][5] - The report suggests that total policy is entering a wait-and-see period, while industrial policy is expected to be more proactive, indicating potential support for new growth drivers through "cross-cycle" adjustments [1][5] Group 2 - In March, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, while total profits fell by 21.4% year-on-year, indicating slow improvement in industrial enterprise efficiency [4] - The official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2 in April, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI recorded 56.4, showing a decline in new orders and new export orders [4] - High-frequency data points to a mild recovery, with structural changes being more significant than total changes, as investment demand is weakening [4] Group 3 - The Politburo meeting emphasized a positive tone for various sectors, acknowledging that the "three pressures" on the economy have eased, while also calling for stronger endogenous growth and demand [5] - The government is expected to enhance fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stimulate private investment, particularly in high-end manufacturing and artificial intelligence [5] - Employment stabilization measures are being implemented, with support for industries that can absorb more employment and increased recruitment in state-owned enterprises [5][6] Group 4 - The U.S. Q1 GDP growth rate was significantly lower than expected at 1.1%, with personal consumption expenditures contributing mainly from durable goods [7] - Employment data showed resilience, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 253,000 in April, but signs of cooling demand were also present [7] - The Fed's recent rate hike of 25 basis points may be the last, but market expectations for a September rate cut may not materialize, leading to potential volatility in U.S. assets [7]