供需格局稳定向好 焦炭期价出现高估现象

Core Viewpoint - The prices of coke and coking coal have shown a fluctuating upward trend since early July, driven by a stable and improving supply-demand structure, with investors advised to look for buying opportunities during price corrections [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The majority of coke is used in the iron-making process of steel production, making it essential to monitor changes in pig iron output and national blast furnace capacity utilization rates. In the first half of the year, national pig iron output reached 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating expanding demand for coke [2]. - National blast furnace capacity utilization rates have been rising, from a low of 72.67% at the end of February to a peak of 79.77%. Although there was a slight decline in July due to compressed profits, the impact on coke demand was limited, with rates rebounding to 79.49% by the end of July [2]. Supply Side Changes - In the first half of the year, national coke production was 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, indicating a slight contraction in supply. The capacity utilization rates of 100 coke ovens remained stable, ranging from 79.81% to 80.00% over the past four weeks [3]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of July, independent coke plant inventories totaled 470,100 tons, up from 385,900 tons at the end of June. Port inventories were at 2.65 million tons, down from 3.005 million tons before the Spring Festival. Steel mill inventories also increased to 4.9228 million tons from 4.6382 million tons [4]. - The accumulation of inventory is not significant, with the increase in upstream and steel mill inventories being offset by a decrease in port inventories. This limited accumulation has a minimal negative impact on prices [4]. Futures Market Insights - The fundamentals of the coal and coke market remain strong, providing upward price support. However, the current futures prices may be overvalued, as the coke 2009 contract is trading above 2,000 yuan per ton, while the port spot price is around 1,900 yuan per ton [5][6]. - The ratio of coke to coking coal contracts is at 1.63, indicating a historically high level of profitability in the coking sector, which also suggests potential overvaluation of coke futures prices [6].