【央行圆桌汇】美联储7月FOMC会议大概率按兵不动（2025年7月28日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The G20 Development Ministers' meeting took place in Mpumalanga, South Africa, discussing issues such as enhancing social protection and combating illicit financial flows [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its interest rate cuts for the first time since June 2024, citing trade disputes as a major source of policy uncertainty [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with officials indicating that recent political events have minimal impact on the gradual rate hike stance [2] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark rate from 20% to 18%, aligning with market expectations while maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation targets are met [2] - The Central Bank of Turkey reduced its benchmark rate from 46% to 43%, marking the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle [2] Market Observations - PIMCO economists noted that despite President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, he is unlikely to replace Chairman Powell, instead using upcoming appointments to influence monetary policy [3] - Economists from ING highlighted that while Tokyo's inflation has eased, it remains high enough to support the Bank of Japan's consideration of policy normalization [4] - Analysts from Capital Economics pointed out that upcoming U.S. tariffs could introduce new uncertainties for the South African economy, which is already facing economic weakness [4] Upcoming Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates due to strong recent economic data, with market attention on Powell's statements following the rate decision [4]