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Group 1 - The core issue in the upcoming US-China talks will shift from traditional trade disputes to China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran, with the US potentially imposing secondary tariffs of up to 500% [1] - Since February 10, China has imposed tariffs of 94% and 99% on US crude oil and LNG respectively, leading to a significant drop in US energy exports to China, with the US falling to the 15th position among China's crude oil import sources [1][3] - The US strategy aims to link energy with geopolitical issues, threatening to sever energy ties between China and Russia/Iran, which is critical for China's energy supply chain, as trade between China and Russia is expected to exceed $300 billion by 2025, with energy accounting for over 40% [1][3] Group 2 - If China yields to pressure and abandons oil from Russia and Iran, it would not only increase energy costs but also signify a geopolitical concession to the US [3] - The US's call for European allies to follow suit with secondary sanctions faces challenges, as many European countries, including Germany and France, have expressed reluctance to participate in unilateral sanctions due to potential increases in their own energy costs [3] - The US shale oil industry is already suffering from the impact of tariffs, with many companies nearing breakeven points, indicating a strategic contradiction in the US's approach to containing China while trying to protect its domestic energy market [3][5] Group 3 - The proposed 100% tariffs on Russia and 500% on China and India after the expiration of a ceasefire deadline could lead to a surge in global oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel, which would exacerbate inflation in the US [5] - The ongoing energy conflict reveals the harsh reality of US-China competition, as the US attempts to use energy as leverage against China, while China is proactively seeking to break free from US dominance through various strategies, including controlling graphite exports and rare earth processing technologies [5][7] - The outcome of this energy struggle will not be determined by tariffs or sanctions, but by who can achieve energy autonomy, with China focusing on technological upgrades and diversified energy sources, while the US shows signs of fatigue due to strategic overreach and disunity among allies [7]