ETO Markets 市场洞察：央行集体"叛变"美元？黄金将迎来史诗级反弹

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of strong dollar performance, developments in US-EU trade agreements, and geopolitical tensions, with potential implications for future investment strategies in gold [3][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a low of $3320 per ounce, currently trading around $3335 per ounce, following a nearly 1% decline last Friday [1]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a strong dollar and optimistic sentiment regarding US-EU trade agreements [1][3]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Its Impact - The dollar index rebounded from a two-week low, increasing the holding costs of gold for non-dollar investors, which contributed to the recent drop in gold prices [3]. - Despite short-term support for the dollar from economic data and trade negotiations, it recorded its largest weekly decline in a month, indicating potential limitations on further dollar appreciation [3]. Group 3: US-EU Trade Agreement - The recent US-EU trade agreement, which includes a 15% tariff on EU goods and commitments from the EU to increase investments in the US, has reduced market uncertainty and diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven [4]. - The agreement's details have sparked controversy, with some European leaders criticizing it as unbalanced, which may leave room for future trade conflicts and potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, such as conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, and tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide long-term support for gold prices despite short-term declines in safe-haven demand [6]. - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves to reduce reliance on the dollar, which is expected to sustain long-term demand for gold [6]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical factor influencing gold prices, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [7]. - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve could impact its independence and create downward risks for the dollar, indirectly supporting gold prices [7]. Group 6: Upcoming Key Events - A series of important economic data releases and central bank meetings are scheduled, which may provide insights into future Federal Reserve policies and influence gold price movements [9][10][11][12].