全世界被打脸！关税之下，为什么滞胀没来，美元还跌了？

Core Insights - The actual economic impact of Trump's tariff policy has diverged significantly from initial predictions, leading to unexpected consequences for the dollar and inflation [1][5][9] - The anticipated "stagflation" effect has not materialized, as the U.S. economy remains resilient despite rising tariff revenues [4][6][9] Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policy was expected to strengthen the dollar and induce stagflation, with economists estimating a 0.1% reduction in economic growth and a 0.1% increase in inflation for every 1% rise in tariff rates [5][9] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 2.5% to 15%, yet the dollar has weakened, experiencing its most severe decline in half a century [5][6] - Tariff revenues are growing at an annualized rate of $300 billion, approximately four times higher than the previous year, but the economy continues to show resilience [4][6] Group 2: Factors Mitigating Negative Effects - The surge in artificial intelligence investments and ongoing government fiscal stimulus have countered the negative impacts of the tariff policy [4][6][9] - Projected annual spending on AI infrastructure by tech giants has increased by $60 billion since January, reaching $350 billion, which has bolstered economic growth [6][9] - Trump's tax cuts have allowed U.S. companies to absorb much of the tariff costs, with an estimated savings of $100 billion in 2023, primarily through tax reductions [7][9] Group 3: Complexity of Economic Systems - The current economic situation illustrates the limitations of simplistic economic models that attribute outcomes to single factors, as the economy is influenced by multiple variables [8][9] - Despite the potential for stagflation to emerge if average effective tax rates continue to rise, the current tariff rates have not overwhelmed the larger forces supporting growth and controlling inflation [9][10]