财报前瞻 | 亟待“新引擎”，苹果Q3盈利增长恐“熄火”

Core Viewpoint - Investor sentiment towards Apple (AAPL.US) has been cooling this year, with the upcoming Q3 earnings report on July 31 expected to be a pivotal moment for the stock's performance [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts expect Apple to report Q3 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.42 and revenue of $89.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year EPS growth of 1.4% and revenue growth of 3.9% [1] - For the next fiscal quarter, EPS is projected to be $1.65, a marginal increase of $0.01 year-over-year, with revenue expected to grow by 2.9% to $97.67 billion [1] Stock Price Movement - As of the latest update, Apple's stock price has seen a year-to-date decline of 14.5%, currently trading at $214.9, with a slight increase of 0.5% in after-hours trading [1] - Analysts from Monness Crespi Hardt and Goldman Sachs maintain a "buy" rating on Apple, with target prices of $245 and $251 respectively, citing potential revenue and EPS outperformance [2] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Samsung and Google are actively launching new products, including foldable smartphones and Pixel devices, which may impact Apple's market position [2] - Apple's service business is under pressure due to a court ruling limiting fees and potential impacts from an antitrust case involving Google, which could affect their lucrative partnership [2] Market Challenges - Apple faces several challenges, including regulatory pressures, trade policy uncertainties, and economic challenges in the Chinese market [4] - CEO Tim Cook indicated that while supply chain optimizations have mitigated some tariff impacts, future policy changes could lead to increased costs, estimating an additional $900 million in costs due to tariffs in Q3 [4] Stock Performance Outlook - Analysts suggest that Apple's stock may remain in a trading range between $195 and $215 until investors gain clarity on service growth prospects and tariff impacts [4] - The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average, indicating a negative signal, and recent product announcements have not generated significant investor excitement [5]