近20年来首次！特朗普亲自“登门”美联储，加码“逼宫”鲍威尔？

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected visit of former President Trump to the Federal Reserve, alongside Chairman Powell, has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed amidst political pressures, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts ahead of the election season [1][3][8] Group 1: Political Pressure on Monetary Policy - Trump's visit comes just hours before he announces his new vice presidential pick, indicating a strategic timing to influence monetary policy discussions [3] - He explicitly requested Powell to initiate multiple interest rate cuts in the fall to alleviate economic pressures related to the upcoming elections, marking a stark contrast to past presidential conduct regarding the Fed [3][5] - The current political climate shows that 64% of Trump's supporters believe high borrowing costs are negatively impacting the economy, emphasizing the political stakes involved in monetary policy decisions [3][5] Group 2: Economic Context and Fed's Position - Despite a decrease in inflation, the core PCE price index remains at 2.6%, indicating that the Fed may be cautious about implementing rate cuts [5] - The Fed's recent meeting minutes reflect a conservative internal stance on the path to interest rate cuts, suggesting that Powell is under significant pressure to balance political demands with economic realities [5][6] - Historical context shows that political manipulation of monetary policy can lead to long-term negative consequences, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the stagflation of the 1970s [6][8] Group 3: Implications for the Future - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on July 31 is highly anticipated, with Powell's body language during Trump's visit serving as a potential indicator of the Fed's response to political pressures [8] - The visit has exposed the fragility of the Fed's independence, raising concerns about the long-term implications for the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [8] - Each compromise made by the Fed in response to political influence could reshape the foundational principles of the dollar system, highlighting the risks associated with the politicization of monetary policy [8]