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Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing high volatility due to multiple factors, including strong U.S. retail data and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which may lead to a new round of gold market opportunities [1][11]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, significantly surpassing market expectations of 0.1% and reversing two months of decline [3]. - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and energy, also grew by 0.5%, indicating consumer resilience amid inflationary pressures [3]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April, while continuing claims slightly increased to 1.956 million, still at historical lows, suggesting a stable labor market [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a heated debate between hawkish and dovish factions regarding interest rate cuts, impacting market expectations [5][10]. - Hawkish members, like Governor Cook, argue for maintaining restrictive policies to combat inflation, citing the potential long-term effects of tariffs on consumer prices [6]. - Dovish members, such as Daly, maintain that two rate cuts this year are reasonable, emphasizing the need to avoid excessive tightening that could harm the job market [7][10]. - Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, citing temporary inflation from tariffs and risks in the labor market as justifications [8]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases are expected to influence market dynamics, including U.S. job openings on July 29, ADP employment numbers on July 30, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 31 [12]. - The potential escalation of U.S.-EU trade tensions and the ongoing situation regarding the Federal Reserve Chair's position may further impact gold market volatility [11].