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中金:下半年动力煤价格反弹回升趋势可期 继续看好高股息标的
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-28 07:07

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the "peak summer" period, there may be adjustments in the pace of coal price recovery, but with the heating season starting in October, coal price support is expected to strengthen again, indicating that the low point of coal prices in June may be the lowest for the year [1][5] - The coal industry is expected to see a rational release of supply in the second half of the year, combined with marginal improvements in demand, leading to an overall rebound in coal prices, which will aid in the recovery of industry profitability [1][2] - The domestic electricity demand is projected to grow steadily, with a forecasted year-on-year growth rate of 5-6% by 2025, and an expected improvement in coal demand in the second half of the year compared to the first half [3] Group 2 - Policy adjustments are expected to lead to a more rational coal supply, reducing the "quantity compensates for price" situation and enhancing safety and sustainability in the industry [4] - Coking coal prices are anticipated to rebound, but the sustainability of this rebound will depend on whether production cuts are realized and if iron and steel production meets expectations [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks and those with high profit elasticity in the short term, while favoring companies with strong resource endowments and cost advantages in the long term, including China Shenhua (601088), China Coal Energy (601898), and others [7]