巴菲特宣布退休后，伯克希尔股价“一蹶不振”

Core Viewpoint - The market is concerned about the impact of Warren Buffett's retirement announcement on Berkshire Hathaway's stock performance, leading to a decline of over 10% since the announcement on May 3, 2023 [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - The decline in stock price reflects investor worries about the "Buffett premium" fading, as well as uncertainties surrounding the leadership transition [5]. - Berkshire Hathaway's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 20 percentage points, despite previously outperforming the index earlier in the year [1][5]. - Analysts note that the lack of transparency regarding the succession plan and the future of key executives contributes to investor anxiety [5]. Group 2: Financial Position and Valuation - Despite the stock price drop, Berkshire Hathaway maintains an attractive valuation, with A shares trading at approximately $725,000, which is less than 1.6 times the book value of $461,000 as of June 30 [6]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratio is around 24 times based on 2025 earnings, which is comparable to the S&P 500 [6]. - Adjusting for "normalized earnings" as per Buffett's preferred metrics, the P/E ratio drops to about 20 times, enhancing the company's valuation appeal [6]. Group 3: Core Business Strengths - Berkshire Hathaway's three core businesses—insurance, railroads, and utilities—remain robust, generating approximately $45 billion in annual operating income [8]. - The company is expected to see its book value per share rise to $525,000 by the end of 2026, with the current stock price reflecting 1.4 times the forward book value [8]. - The insurance segment, particularly Geico, has shown resilience with a premium growth rate of 4%-5%, while Berkshire Hathaway Energy is investing $10 billion annually in various projects [8]. Group 4: Potential Catalysts for Growth - Major acquisitions could serve as catalysts for stock price recovery, with potential targets including CSX and Occidental Petroleum [7]. - A successful merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern could lead to Berkshire acquiring CSX, potentially enhancing earnings by 8% by 2026 [7]. - The company has not repurchased shares since May 2024, and restarting buybacks could signal management's confidence in the stock's attractiveness [7].