Will Harley-Davidson Stock Rise On Its Upcoming Earnings?

Group 1 - Harley-Davidson is expected to report Q2 2025 earnings on July 30, 2025, with consensus forecasts indicating earnings of approximately $0.96 per share, down from $1.63 in the same quarter last year, and revenue expected to be around $1.1 billion, reflecting a nearly 19% year-over-year decrease [2] - The decline in earnings and revenue suggests a diminishing interest in Harley's high-end motorcycles, attributed to low consumer confidence amid high interest rates and economic uncertainty [2] - The company has retracted its full-year 2025 outlook due to uncertainties related to trade policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, while management emphasizes commitment to cost control and stricter inventory management [2] Group 2 - Harley-Davidson currently has a market capitalization of $3.0 billion, with revenue for the past twelve months at $4.8 billion, generating $314 million in operating profits and $354 million in net income [3] - Historical trends indicate that there have been 17 earnings data points over the past five years, with 11 positive and 6 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 65% occurrence of positive returns [5] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 7.8%, while the median of the 6 negative returns is -6.8% [5] Group 3 - A strategy to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be effective, particularly if the correlation is strong [6] - The correlation between 1D and 5D returns can guide traders to position themselves "long" for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [6] - The performance of peers can influence Harley-Davidson's stock reaction following earnings, with market adjustments potentially beginning prior to the earnings announcement [7]