老铺黄金高点回落30%！华尔街：上半年业绩营收增速“慢了”，下半年定价策略是关键

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved strong year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, but performance was slightly below analysts' high expectations, raising concerns about profitability due to limited price adjustments amid rising gold prices [1][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half is projected to be between 120-125 billion RMB, which is 3-7% lower than UBS's forecast [2]. - Net profit guidance is set at 22.3-22.8 billion RMB, aligning closely with UBS's estimate of 22.58 billion RMB [2]. - Adjusted net profit (excluding share-based payments) is expected to reach 23.0-23.6 billion RMB, which is 1-3% lower than UBS's prediction [2]. - Year-on-year revenue growth is reported at 241%-255%, while net profit growth is between 279%-288% [3]. Margin and Pricing Strategy - Rising gold prices have negatively impacted the company's gross margin, with a noted increase of approximately 24% in gold prices during the first half [5][4]. - The company only raised retail prices once in February by 10%, which was insufficient to offset the margin pressure from rising gold prices [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the pricing strategy for the second half of the year will be crucial for balancing profitability and demand elasticity [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The company's stock price has declined by 29% since early July, reflecting investor concerns over profit pressures due to rising gold prices [8]. - Analysts observe a strong correlation between gold prices, demand growth, and the company's stock price, indicating that the stock has not yet faced a stable or declining gold price environment [8]. Analyst Ratings and Future Outlook - Nomura raised the target price for the company from 1023 HKD to 1148 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing improved valuation attractiveness [11]. - UBS maintains a "Neutral" rating with a target price of 980 HKD, while Morgan Stanley keeps a weight rating with a target price of 1055 HKD [11]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects but highlight the impact of gold price volatility on valuation [11].