解析港股行情背后的主导力量 后市前景几何

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has become a preferred destination for capital, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a high of 25,735.89 points in July, marking the highest level since 2022 [1][3] Market Activity - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant activity in both the primary and secondary markets. In the primary market, there has been a continuous influx of large A-share companies conducting IPOs in Hong Kong, with a noticeable increase in refinancing and active subscription trading. In the secondary market, trading volume has increased significantly, with southbound capital inflows exceeding HKD 82 billion, surpassing the total for the previous year [1][5] Liquidity Factors - The current market trend is primarily driven by liquidity, with both macro and micro liquidity being relatively loose. A report from CICC indicates that the macro liquidity is supported by ample domestic funds and a lack of quality assets, leading to sustained capital inflows. Additionally, the drop in Hibor has released liquidity into the market, while external macro liquidity has also been favorable since the second quarter [5][6] Structural Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a structural bull market rather than a comprehensive bull market. Each market pullback has been followed by a rise in the bottom, but the leading sectors have varied. Investors need to focus on identifying leading sectors to capture index returns, as merely tracking the index may not yield the same results [7][10] IPO Activity - As of July 28, 52 new stocks have been listed in the Hong Kong market this year, raising a total of nearly HKD 130 billion. Notably, CATL led the fundraising with HKD 41.006 billion, becoming the largest IPO globally in the first half of the year [8] Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of continued capital inflows as household savings shift towards the capital market. However, there may be a divergence in supply and demand, with a potential slowdown in southbound capital inflows and an active IPO market that could further expand [10][11]