美联储会议前景：维持利率不变，关注经济数据

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, but the market is closely watching for signs of potential rate cuts starting in September [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Analysts believe that clarity regarding interest rate decisions has not yet arrived, allowing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to maintain a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The Fed has signaled the possibility of needing to cut rates, but officials are waiting to assess the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the economy [4][5]. - The current economic conditions are not significantly different from a few months ago, despite a slowdown in growth [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employers continued to add jobs in June, despite the economic slowdown [6]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with tariffs increasing the risk of sustained high inflation [7]. - The Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, with officials outlining the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of the year [7]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market perceives that the Fed's patience may soon wane, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [8]. - The Fed will have access to July and August employment reports to evaluate whether the job market is slowing down [9]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Some economists believe that waiting until September for a rate cut may be too late, with the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year [10]. - Analysts expect Powell to reiterate that any decisions will depend on data [11]. - There is a growing divide among Fed officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and the need for patience [15][17]. Group 5: Reasons for Rate Cuts - Two Fed officials have shown a tendency towards rate cuts, citing signs of economic slowdown despite a seemingly normal economy [13]. - Lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers could provide support before further economic deterioration [14]. - Concerns about inflation driven by tariffs are present, but some officials believe these effects may take time to fully manifest [16].