美欧贸易协议与美联储利率决议：全球市场的双重变量

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting, while discussions around potential rate cuts in the fall are intensifying due to pressures from the Trump administration and mixed economic signals [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 30, with market expectations leaning towards no change in rates as more data is awaited regarding the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1]. - There is growing speculation about a possible rate cut in September, as indicated by futures markets, with observers closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the monthly employment report [1][3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Some Federal Reserve officials, including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, are likely to voice dissent regarding the current interest rate levels, citing rising employment risks [2]. - If both officials oppose the decision, it would mark the first time since 1993 that two members have voted against the majority, with Waller being considered a potential successor to Powell [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent inflation reports show that while some goods have seen price increases due to tariffs, the core inflation rate has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating that price pressures are not yet widespread [3]. - Economists are puzzled by the limited impact of tariffs on prices, attributing it to factors such as preemptive inventory increases and cost-sharing in supply chains [3]. Group 4: Powell's Communication Strategy - During the press conference, Powell is expected to address concerns about tariffs and inflation, likely emphasizing the Fed's responsibility to maintain price stability while acknowledging recent positive data [4]. - Powell has faced significant pressure from the Trump administration, which may influence his responses, although he is anticipated to focus on economic issues rather than political pressures [4].