Can Apple's Slim iPhone And Cheaper Macs Reverse The 2025 Stock Slump?

Core Viewpoint - Apple is expected to experience a significant rebound in the second half of fiscal 2025, driven by new product launches and strong performance in its Services division, despite facing rising tariff costs and regulatory challenges [1][3]. Financial Projections - For fiscal Q3 2025, revenue is projected at $90.2 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.45, slightly above consensus estimates of $89.3 billion and $1.43 [4]. - The anticipated gross margin is approximately 46.1%, despite absorbing $900 million in tariff-related costs [5]. - For fiscal Q4 2025, revenue is expected to reach $99.5 billion and EPS at $1.66, aligning with market expectations [5]. Product Launches - The upcoming "slim" iPhone, potentially branded as iPhone "Air," is expected to drive sales, featuring a 6.6-inch display, a thickness of 6mm, and a price $100 higher than the previous Plus model [6][7]. - The new MacBook Air with the M4 chip, launched in March, is anticipated to enhance Mac revenue, priced at $999, which is $100 lower than its predecessor [8]. - The iPad segment is expected to benefit from the fall launch of iPad Pro models with the M5 chip, driving revenue growth through higher average selling prices and product upgrades [9]. Services Segment - The Services segment is projected to generate $27.1 billion in revenue for Q3, reflecting a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 12% year-over-year increase [10]. - For Q4, Services revenue is expected to rise to $28 billion, again marking a 12% annual increase, with Licensing and Apple Pay projected to grow over 20% year-over-year [11]. Overall Outlook - The full fiscal year 2025 revenue estimate has been slightly raised to $409 billion, with EPS forecasted at $7.15 [12]. - Despite near-term margin pressures and regulatory scrutiny, there is potential for growth driven by new product cycles and improving Services momentum [13].