上调82%！美财政部三季度借款预期破万亿，债务上限提高后加速发债

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is significantly increasing its borrowing forecast for the third quarter of 2023, expecting net borrowing to reach $1.007 trillion, a substantial increase of over 82% from the previous estimate of $554 billion due to the lifting of the debt ceiling [1][3]. Group 1: Borrowing Forecast and Debt Ceiling Impact - The Treasury's borrowing forecast for July to September has been raised by more than $450 billion, reflecting the acceleration of debt issuance following the increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1][3]. - The actual borrowing in the second quarter was only $65 billion, far below the anticipated $514 billion, primarily due to a lower-than-expected cash balance at the end of June [3][4]. - The cash balance at the end of June was reported at $457 billion, significantly lower than the previously assumed $850 billion, leading to a $393 billion shortfall that contributed to the increased borrowing needs [2][3]. Group 2: Cash Management and Future Projections - The Treasury aims to restore its cash balance to $850 billion by the end of September, primarily through the issuance of short-term debt [4][6]. - For the fourth quarter (October to December), the Treasury projects net borrowing of $590 billion, assuming the cash balance will recover to $850 billion [2][4]. - The Treasury's cash management strategy remains stable, with expectations that the debt issuance plan will align with previous quarterly refinancing levels [6]. Group 3: Revenue Changes and Economic Implications - Tariff revenues have increased significantly, with customs duties expected to rise further, although corporate tax revenues are projected to decline, partially offsetting tariff gains [5]. - In June, the U.S. recorded a fiscal surplus of over $27 billion, attributed mainly to customs tariff revenues, marking the first surplus for June since 2017 [5]. - The total tariff revenue for the fiscal year to date has reached $113 billion, an 86% increase year-over-year, setting a record for a single fiscal year [5].