“大贬值”已经在路上了

Core Viewpoint - A systemic "devaluation" is sweeping the globe, with the Federal Reserve in Washington at its center, transforming from a stabilizer to an accelerator of this devaluation [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in the U.S. has risen to 2.7% as of June 2025, with the core PCE price index also stubbornly at 2.7% in May [3] - The U.S. federal deficit exceeded $1.3 trillion in the first six months of the 2025 fiscal year, averaging over $70 billion in debt issuance daily [6] - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed $1.3 trillion this year, surpassing the defense budget and becoming the fastest-growing expenditure in the federal budget [6] Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. national debt is expected to reach $50 trillion, with current levels already surpassing $36 trillion [5] - The "Inflation Reduction Act" signed in July 2025 raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to an estimated increase of over $3.4 trillion in new debt over the next decade [7] - By 2025, $9.2 trillion of national debt will mature, representing a quarter of the total debt, complicating refinancing efforts in a high-interest environment [6] Group 3: Trust and Credibility - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, which undermines market expectations [8][9] - The global consensus on the dollar is eroding, with countries increasingly opting for alternatives like gold and bypassing the dollar in trade [10][11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Diversification is crucial as the era of solely betting on dollar assets is over; attention should shift to undervalued assets in markets like A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14] - Scarcity is becoming a key value anchor, with gold and commodities likely to retain value during inflationary periods due to their limited supply [15] - Stablecoins are not a reliable value anchor as they are still tied to the dollar's credibility, which is under threat [16]