特朗普和贝森特定调：利率下降后，美国再增发长债

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is shifting from a traditional, predictable debt issuance strategy to a more speculative "timing" approach, focusing on short-term bonds until interest rates decline significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Issuance Strategy - The administration plans to issue short-term bonds with maturities of six to nine months, waiting for a significant drop in interest rates before considering long-term debt issuance [1]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has echoed this sentiment, indicating a willingness to wait for lower rates before increasing long-term bond issuance [1][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Context - The U.S. government is facing an annual budget deficit of approximately $2 trillion, with total national debt nearing $30 trillion, making borrowing strategies increasingly critical [2][3]. - The choice between short-term and long-term borrowing is becoming more significant due to the unprecedented scale of government borrowing [3]. Group 3: Official Stance - Despite the administration's signals of a strategic shift, the Treasury Department maintains a cautious official stance, emphasizing a commitment to "regular and predictable" bond issuance [4]. - Treasury Deputy Secretary Michael Faulkender stated that the current auction sizes and market guidance have not changed since the previous administration, suggesting continuity in debt management practices [4].