六大品种期货集体跌停！焦煤、碳酸锂等遭遇监管限仓重击

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility, with major contracts for coking coal, glass, coke, soda ash, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate hitting the limit down [1] - Over ten varieties, including alumina and polysilicon, saw declines exceeding 3%, marking a shift from previous bullish sentiment driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations to panic selling [1][3] - The implementation of position limits by exchanges was a direct catalyst for the market reversal, coinciding with a period of heightened market enthusiasm [3] Group 2 - From July 1 to July 25, polysilicon futures prices surged by 52.31%, glass futures by 33.79%, and lithium carbonate futures by 28.46%, while coking coal futures rose by 49.44% over seven consecutive trading days [3] - The position limits imposed by exchanges directly impacted speculative trading, forcing speculative funds to reduce positions and exit the market [3] - Despite the market's sharp adjustment, the fundamental logic behind the "anti-involution" policy remains, aiming to improve the current state of vicious competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [4] Group 3 - The steel industry, as a key focus of regulatory measures, is expected to see a year-on-year production decline of 5% in the third quarter, which will positively affect the fundamentals of coking coal as a crucial raw material [4] - The situation in the new energy supply chain is more complex, with lithium and silicon facing weak fundamentals but supported by strong policy expectations, leading to a rebound despite high inventory levels and oversupply [4] - The glass industry faces ongoing supply pressure, with float glass production maintaining around 156,800 tons per day, and demand showing no significant improvement, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [5]