7.28纯碱日评：纯碱市场交投谨慎 跌多涨少

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a stable yet fluctuating trend, with prices showing more declines than increases, and overall market sentiment remains cautious [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of July 28, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1270-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1320-1420 CNY/ton. In South China, light soda ash is priced at 1390-1520 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1340-1450 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on July 28 is 1285.71, up by 4.29 (0.33%) from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index is 1324.29, down by 20 (-1.49%) [3]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1430 CNY/ton and closed at 1316 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 8.04%. The highest price during the day was 1432 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1316 CNY/ton, with total holdings increasing by 46,632 contracts [5]. - The market is under pressure due to cooling sentiment and policy impacts, with previous speculative price increases driven by "anti-involution" policies now subsiding. The overall demand remains weak, and inventory levels are still relatively high, leading to cautious investor sentiment [5]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price floor due to policy support, but the potential for price increases is limited by overcapacity. Supply is anticipated to increase as previously shut-down facilities resume operations [6]. - While downstream demand remains stable, the enthusiasm for purchasing at new prices has decreased, and traders are cautious about high prices, leading to a more watchful trading atmosphere [6]. Conclusion - In summary, the soda ash market is characterized by a cautious outlook with stable prices but limited upward movement potential, influenced by supply and demand dynamics and overall market sentiment [6].