美联储重磅放风！本周仍将按兵不动，三大阵营激烈博弈9月降息

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials generally expect to eventually need to resume interest rate cuts, but are not prepared to take action in the upcoming meeting, with internal divisions on the timing and necessity of such cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions Among Fed Officials - The Federal Reserve is currently divided into three camps regarding the potential for resuming rate cuts, influenced by mixed economic signals and political pressures from President Trump [2]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly represents the cautious majority, emphasizing the uncertainty of inflation forecasts and the need for evidence of economic weakness before justifying rate cuts [2][3]. - Some officials, like Governors Waller and Bowman, have indicated they may oppose the majority view and advocate for immediate rate cuts, highlighting a significant divergence in opinions within the committee [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Inflation Concerns - Middle-ground officials are open to the idea of rate cuts later in the year but want to observe two more months of inflation and employment data to confirm that the impact of tariffs is less severe than expected [3]. - There are concerns that current tariffs are not being fully enforced, which could lead to increased price pressures later in the year, complicating the decision-making process for rate cuts [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic warns that persistent inflation discussions could alter public perception of costs, potentially leading to long-term inflation effects from what should be temporary tariff impacts [4]. Group 3: Risk Management Perspectives - The ongoing debate reflects differing views on risk management, particularly the balance between acting too early versus too late in response to economic conditions [5]. - Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan notes that delaying decisions may be manageable, but avoiding long-term errors is crucial, suggesting that the Fed's current cautious approach is prudent given the unclear impact of tariffs on inflation [5].