被坑惨了！日本高价买印度稀土13年，宣称已摆脱对华稀土依赖，结果到手发现全是中国货

Core Viewpoint - The sudden ban on rare earth exports from India to Japan in June 2025 has exposed the fragility of Japan's supply chain and its over-reliance on India, which was perceived as a strategic alternative to China. This event marks the collapse of Japan's 13-year-long strategy to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths, revealing the reality of its supply chain vulnerabilities [1][4][9]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - Japan's reliance on Indian rare earths was built on the assumption that India could serve as a stable alternative to China, despite India's actual production being only 2,900 tons in 2022 compared to China's 210,000 tons [2][6]. - The so-called "Indian rare earths" were primarily imported from China, with India acting as a middleman, marking up prices by 25% before selling to Japan [2][4]. - The ban has highlighted Japan's critical resource supply vulnerabilities, as it now faces significant cost and time pressures in sectors such as electric vehicles, precision machinery, and military manufacturing [6][9]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - India's decision to halt exports is seen as a strategic move, leveraging its position amid ongoing tensions with Japan over technology transfer and market access [4][9]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with India observing the U.S.-China rare earth competition and seeking to carve out its own strategic space [4][9]. - The event underscores the reality that the global rare earth supply chain remains heavily influenced by China, which controls over 70% of global supply and more than 90% of refining capacity [6][8]. Group 3: Strategic Miscalculations - Japan's long-term strategy to diversify its rare earth supply has been revealed as a miscalculation, as it has paid a premium for Indian resources without achieving true independence from China [9][10]. - The situation serves as a reminder that resource autonomy requires substantial technological development and industry control, rather than mere reliance on alternative suppliers [10].