复旦碳价指数：2025年8月GEC价格指数走势分化

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for August 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, CCER prices, and GEC prices [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Prices - The expected buy price for the CEA in August 2025 is 71.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.04 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.65 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 0.83% to 178.13, while the sell price index decreased by 0.82% to 171.57 [2][3]. - For December 2025, the expected buy price is 72.04 CNY/ton, sell price is 79.61 CNY/ton, and midpoint price is 75.82 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 134.78, and the sell price index is 136.65 [2][3]. Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Prices - The expected buy price for CCER in August 2025 is 76.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.59 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 79.91 CNY/ton. The buy price index rose by 2.49% to 191.68, and the sell price index increased by 3.45% to 201.08 [2][3]. Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) Prices - The expected prices for GECs in August 2025 show a divergence in trends. For 2024 production, centralized project GECs are priced at 3.50 CNY/unit, distributed project GECs at 3.36 CNY/unit, and biomass power generation GECs at 3.66 CNY/unit. For 2025 production, prices are 7.82 CNY/unit for centralized projects, 6.94 CNY/unit for distributed projects, and 6.77 CNY/unit for biomass [4][5]. Market Trends - In July, the average closing price for CEA was 73.64 CNY/ton, up approximately 3% from June's average of 71.51 CNY/ton. However, the trading volume decreased by 35.75% to an average of 51.03 million tons compared to June [6]. - The global carbon market showed mixed trends, with the EU carbon market's average price rising slightly, while the UK market saw a significant drop in trading volume [9].