里昂：育儿补贴明确释出政策支持生育的信号 维持伊利、H&H“跑赢大市”评级

Group 1 - The Chinese government has introduced a subsidy plan of 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants aged 0 to 3, signaling policy support for childbirth, although the amount is limited [1] - The primary intention of the policy is to boost consumption, which accounts for approximately 0.2% of retail sales, rather than directly stimulating childbirth, but it may have a limited positive impact on newborn numbers in the short term [1] - The subsidy is a response to the declining birth rate and aims to alleviate the financial burden of raising children on families [1] Group 2 - The infant formula market is closely linked to the number of newborns, and a temporary rebound in newborn numbers in 2024 is expected to stabilize the market size, showing improvement compared to the decline in unit numbers in mid-2024 [1] - Within the research coverage, Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) demonstrates strong growth momentum with an increasing market share, while H&H International has also seen a recovery in its market share in the ultra-premium segment [1] - The investment ratings for Yili and H&H are maintained at "outperform," with target prices set at 33 yuan and 13.5 Hong Kong dollars, respectively [1]