桥水创始人达利欧：建议配置15%的黄金和比特币仓位，警惕市场崩盘！

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio suggests that investors should allocate at least 15% of their portfolios to gold and Bitcoin due to rising risks in the bond and stock markets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Risks - Dalio highlights that the macroeconomic risks from rising government debt in the U.S. and other regions are not yet reflected in market pricing, potentially leading to significant market declines [1]. - He points out that U.S. government spending exceeds income by 40%, with accumulated debt being six times the annual income, and annual interest payments reaching $1 trillion, which constitutes half of the budget deficit [1]. - Dalio warns that the government may only be able to repay debt by issuing more debt and through "money printing" by the Federal Reserve, which could incite market panic [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Dalio strongly favors gold over Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currencies and cash equivalents, expressing skepticism about central banks adopting Bitcoin as a reserve currency due to its lack of privacy [2]. - He acknowledges concerns regarding Bitcoin, such as the potential for its code to be hacked or its protocol to be altered, which could undermine its value storage function [2]. - Dalio's personal investment portfolio has a higher allocation to gold compared to Bitcoin, indicating a cautious approach towards the latter [2]. Group 3: Gold vs. Bitcoin - Gold is considered a more suitable diversification tool than Bitcoin, as it tends to appreciate during times of risk aversion, serving as useful insurance for investment portfolios [3]. - Some experts caution that the risks associated with gold may be higher than commonly perceived, citing historical instances where gold underperformed significantly [3]. - The volatility of Bitcoin is acknowledged, but historical data shows that long-term holders of gold during certain inflationary periods faced substantial losses [3].