美联储降息救市！7月28日，今日凌晨的四大消息已全面发酵

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are under significant stress due to the looming decisions by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, amidst rising inflation and political pressures, particularly from former President Trump advocating for a substantial rate cut [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is facing a critical decision on whether to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29, with the potential implications for market stability and the value of the dollar [1]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with factions advocating for immediate rate cuts versus those concerned about persistent inflation [4]. - The core CPI rose by 2.9% year-over-year, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, indicating inflationary pressures that complicate the decision-making process [4]. Group 2: Political Influence and Market Reactions - Trump's call for a 300 basis point rate cut has led to increased market volatility, with the probability of Powell's dismissal rising sharply, reflecting heightened political tensions [3]. - Following Trump's initial statement, gold prices surged by $20, while the dollar index fell by 25 points, showcasing the immediate market reaction to political rhetoric [3]. - The White House has initiated the process for selecting a new Fed chair, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [3]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The impending trade war, with tariffs set to increase on various countries, is creating additional uncertainty in global markets, affecting trade dynamics and economic forecasts [6]. - The market's fear of a potential economic downturn is reflected in the significant drop in the probability of rate cuts, from 93% to 76% for two cuts within the year [6]. - The U.S. national debt, projected to exceed $43 trillion by 2028, poses a long-term risk to fiscal stability and could lead to increased borrowing costs [8]. Group 4: Commodity Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing significant activity, with prices reaching historical highs, indicating a shift in investor confidence away from the dollar [9]. - Silver prices are also on the rise, with a notable increase in ETF holdings, suggesting a broader trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [9]. - The overall decline in the MSCI Asia-Pacific index and the drop in gold prices below $3,330 reflect ongoing concerns about trade tensions and their impact on regional markets [8].