华尔街情绪转向：特朗普关税雷声大雨点小？贸易战恐慌骤降

Group 1 - The current effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. is expected to stabilize between 15% and 20%, significantly lower than the potential 25% or higher rates proposed in April [1] - Economists have noted a decrease in recession fears, with JPMorgan reducing its recession risk estimate from 60% to 40%, indicating a shift in sentiment regarding the economic outlook [1] - The recent U.S.-EU trade agreement is seen as a factor that may alleviate concerns about inflation and economic slowdown, despite the tariffs still having a potential dampening effect on growth [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's strategist suggests that the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy is low growth accompanied by persistent inflation, with trade restrictions and immigration policies negatively impacting growth more than regulatory easing and fiscal stimulus [2] - The final outcome of trade negotiations remains uncertain, with several issues still pending before the August 1 deadline, which could lead to high tariffs affecting major trading partners [2] - The recent U.S.-EU agreement will provide new insights for the Federal Reserve to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, with expectations that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate policy in the short term [2] Group 3 - Citigroup economists have indicated that while the effective tariff rate has increased significantly from the beginning of the year, the stabilization around 15% is likely to keep the growth drag and inflation risks moderate [3]