Group 1 - The auction of two-year Japanese government bonds achieved the highest demand level since October last year, indicating a significant increase in investor participation amid rising short-term bond yields [1] - The average bid-to-cover ratio for this auction reached 4.47, higher than last month's 3.90 and the 12-month average of 3.99, reflecting strong demand [1] - The tail price spread narrowed to 0.005, an improvement from the previous auction's 0.012, further indicating robust demand [1] Group 2 - Following the auction, two-year government bond prices rose, leading to a slight decrease in yields by two basis points to 0.82%, contrasting with the overall upward trend in recent short- and long-term bond yields [1] - Market pricing shows that the "risk-neutral yield," which measures future short-term interest rate expectations, has climbed to 0.7%, the highest in nearly four months, aligning with expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4] - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year has increased from 57% at the beginning of the month to approximately 75% [4] Group 3 - The auction results validate market expectations for monetary policy normalization and reflect investor demand during a rising short-rate cycle [5] - Political uncertainties remain, but the recent trade agreement and clearer expectations for central bank rate hikes are driving the Japanese bond market into a new pricing phase [5]
日本两年期国债拍卖创9个月新高,收益率接近2008年高位引资金入场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-29 06:16