“砍单”后遗症未消，歌尔股份推百亿并购，果链依赖或将加深

Core Viewpoint - Goer Group (歌尔股份) plans to acquire 100% equity of Hong Kong Mia Precision Technology and Changhong Industrial for approximately 104 billion HKD (around 95 billion RMB) to strengthen its position in the precision components sector, aiming to improve its overall profitability through high-margin business [1][2][4]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition is still in the planning stage, requiring further due diligence and evaluation, indicating some uncertainty in the transaction [4]. - The target companies, Hong Kong Mia and Changhong Industrial, have significant technical expertise in metal/non-metal material processing and precision surface treatment, with a combined revenue of approximately 91.1 billion HKD last year [4]. Business Structure and Financials - Goer Group's main business segments include precision components, smart acoustic systems, and smart hardware, with projected revenues for 2024 being 150.51 billion RMB, 262.96 billion RMB, and 571.99 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The gross margin for the precision components business is expected to reach 21.51% in 2024, while the gross margins for smart acoustic systems and smart hardware are both below 10% [4]. Dependency on Apple Supply Chain - The acquisition is seen as a move driven by the "Apple supply chain" logic, as both target companies are core suppliers for Apple, potentially increasing Goer Group's reliance on Apple [5][6]. - As of Q1 2025, Goer Group's cash reserves will significantly decrease post-acquisition, raising concerns about its ability to cover short-term debts, given its short-term borrowings and liabilities totaling 162.03 billion RMB [6]. Performance Recovery - Goer Group's revenue for 2024 was 1009.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, with a net profit of 26.65 billion RMB, marking a 144.93% increase, although still below the 2021 level of 42.75 billion RMB [8]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue decline of 15.57% to 163.05 billion RMB, despite a net profit increase of 23.53% [8]. Expansion into VR/AR and AI Glasses - Goer Group is actively expanding into VR/AR and AI glasses markets, having acquired a 3D sensing system and micro-nano optical device supplier to enhance its technology in the VR sector [9]. - The company is pursuing multiple R&D projects related to AR and AI glasses, expressing confidence in the future market for AI smart glasses [9]. Market Challenges - The global VR headset market has seen a significant decline, with a 12% year-on-year drop in 2024, and a 23% decrease in Q1 2025, attributed to weak consumer demand [10]. - The AI glasses market, while gaining attention, is still in its early stages, facing challenges in achieving widespread adoption due to limitations in hardware and software capabilities [10].