海大集团(002311)：饲料出海+生猪套保 25H1盈利高增

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in feed sales and profitability from futures hedging in the pig farming sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 58.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.64 billion yuan, up 24.2% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 33.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 1.36 billion yuan, a 7.3% increase year-on-year [1]. Sales Growth - The company's feed sales volume increased by 26% year-on-year to 13.65 million tons in H1 2025, with significant growth in aquatic feed (16%), pig feed (43%), and poultry feed (24%) [2]. - The overseas feed business maintained a high growth rate of 40%, with gross margin rising by 2.54 percentage points to 15.1%, significantly higher than the average gross margin of the company's main business [2]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its feed business in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where there is significant potential for growth in meat, egg, and milk consumption [3]. - The company aims to achieve overseas feed sales of 7.2 million tons by 2030, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20%, and domestic feed sales of about 39.3 million tons, with a CAGR of around 10% [3]. Valuation and Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts of 5.02 billion yuan, 5.48 billion yuan, and 7.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The target price has been raised to 66.4 yuan, corresponding to a 22 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, reflecting better-than-expected feed sales growth [4].