农林牧渔 2025 年 09 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025H1 养殖链盈利高增，宠物板 块景气延续 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》- 2025.9.4 《养殖链盈利修复驱动 2025H1 农业 板块利润同比高增 —行业周报》- 2025.8.31 《收储助推猪价见底回升，宠物食品 出口及国内消费高景气延续—行业周 报》-2025.8.24 10 我国对欧盟进口猪肉反倾销初步裁定落地，生猪板 块迎配置良机 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（分析师） | | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790525070003 | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 周观察：我国对欧盟进口猪肉反倾销初步裁定落地，生猪板块迎配置良机 商务部对原产于 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a significant recovery, with the consumption ETF (159928) rising by 0.82% and achieving a total transaction volume of 8.91 billion yuan, indicating a strong inflow of funds [1] - The consumption ETF (159928) has seen a net subscription of 462 million units, accumulating over 3 billion yuan in the last ten days, with a total share exceeding 21.3 billion, leading its peers [1] - New policies aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to be announced soon, with inbound tourism consumption anticipated to boost domestic demand [3] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with a projected consumption recovery in the second half of 2025, as indicated by a 5.6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, up from 4.6% in Q1 [6] - The report highlights a divergence in performance among companies, with leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavoring maintaining stable growth, while some second-tier brands are experiencing revenue declines [9] - The beverage sector has shown resilience, with many snack companies performing well, suggesting a gradual recovery in demand across various industries in the latter half of 2025 [9] Group 3 - The white liquor sector is beginning to show signs of bottoming out, with market liquidity supporting a rise in valuations, despite short-term consumption pressures from regulatory restrictions [10] - The report indicates that the white liquor industry is undergoing a cleansing phase, with performance under pressure but showing signs of improvement, particularly in August [10] - High-end liquor brands are maintaining resilience through effective brand management and channel control, while second-tier brands are more directly affected by policy changes [11] Group 4 - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its strong demand and resilience across economic cycles, with over 68% of its top ten holdings in essential consumer goods [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the consumer sector, particularly those with strong growth potential and innovative distribution channels [9][12] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) is highlighted as an efficient investment option for accessing the consumer sector, particularly for younger consumers [12]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | 4.70 | -2.08% | 110.61万 | 5.18亿 | | 002891 | 中宠股份 | 57.50 | -0.83% | 9.64万 | 5.45 Z | | 002548 | 金新农 | 4.35 | -0.68% | 23.14万 | 9965.85万 | | 603609 | 禾丰股份 | 8.51 | -0.12% | - 4.58万 | 3889.81万 | | 002567 | 唐人神 | 4.81 | 0.00% | 31.43万 | 1.51亿 | | 688156 | 路德环境 | 20.49 | 0.15% | 3.43万 | 6993.12万 | | 300673 | 佩蒂股份 | 18.40 | 0.27% | 11.95万 | 2.17亿 | | 832419 | 路斯股份 | 21.59 | 0.28% | 4.17万 | 8890.06万 | | 002100 | 天康生 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|农林牧渔 如何看待 2025 年 7 月生猪产能数据？ 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年09月05日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 据农业农村部数据，7 月份全国规模猪场母猪淘汰数量环比+2.1%，7 月末全国能繁母猪存栏 量 4042 万头，环比下降 1 万头。2025 年 7 月 23 日，农业农村部召开推动生猪产业高质量发 展座谈会：要严格落实产能调控举措，合理淘汰能繁母猪，适当调减能繁母猪存栏，减少二次 育肥，控制肥猪出栏体重，严控新增产能。重点推荐成本优势明显，出栏兑现度高的优秀养殖 企业。推荐牧原股份、温氏股份等；同时推荐后周期动保及饲料板块，如海大集团等。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 涂雅晴 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 9 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年09月05日 农林牧渔 如何看待 2025 年 7 月生猪产能数据？ 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -20% -3% 13% ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 09 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《猪价新一轮上行或逐步开启，非瘟 疫苗打开动保板块成长空间—行业周 报》-2025.8.17 2025H1 养殖链盈利高增，宠物板块景气延续 ——行业点评报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 王高展（分析师） chenxueli@kysec.cn 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《养殖链盈利修复驱动 2025H1 农业 板 块 利 润 同 比 高 增 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.31 《收储助推猪价见底回升，宠物食品 出口及国内消费高景气延续—行业周 报》-2025.8.24 wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 2025H1 养殖链盈利修复驱动农业板块利润同比高增 2025H1农业板块实现营业收入5699.09亿元，同比增长9.28%，归母净利润257.94 亿元，同比上升 193.46%。2025H1 板块销售毛利率 12.49%，同比上升 5.52pct ...

证券之星消息，9月3日饲料板块较上一交易日下跌2.29%，正虹科技领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3813.56，下跌1.16%。深证成指报收于12472.0，下跌0.65%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603668 | 天马科技 | 14.09 | 1.51% | 17.84万 | 2.51亿 | | 001313 | 都是與國 | 7.58 | -0.79% | 16.35万 | + 1.26亿 | | 688156 | 路德环境 | 20.70 | -0.96% | 2.41万 | 5040.66万 | | 002567 | 唐人神 | 4.78 | -1.24% | - 34.80万 | 1.67亿 | | 002385 | 大北农 | 4.17 | -1.88% | 105.16万 | 4.42亿 | | 832419 | 路斯股份 | 20.28 | -2.03% | 1.40万 | 2862.87万 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Hai Da Group and "Buy-B" for Sheng Nong Development, with several other companies rated as "Increase-A" or "Increase-B" [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown a market performance with the CSI 300 index increasing by 2.71% and the agricultural sector rising by 2.02% during the week of August 25 to August 31 [2][20]. - The report highlights a recovery cycle in the feed industry and marginal improvements in livestock farming, suggesting potential growth opportunities [4][5]. - The report indicates that the current market sentiment may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, while it overlooks the positive effects of declining raw material costs and potential macro demand recovery in 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Swine Farming - As of August 29, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 13.25, 14.84, and 13.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week change of -2.21%, -3.57%, and 0.00% respectively [3][28]. - The average pork price was 19.94 yuan/kg, down 0.80% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price for piglets remained stable at 26.00 yuan/kg [3][28]. - The self-breeding profit was 32.24 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was -148.41 yuan/head [3][28]. Poultry Farming - As of August 29, the weekly price for white feather broilers was 7.33 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week, while the price for broiler chicks increased by 0.84% to 3.61 yuan/chick [3][43]. - The profit from broiler farming was reported at 1.37 yuan/chick, and the egg price was 7.24 yuan/kg, down 0.82% [3][43]. Feed Processing - In July 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 28.31 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [50]. - The report notes a significant decline in the factory prices of feed products, with the proportion of corn in compound feed at 33.1% and soybean meal at 14.1% [50]. Aquaculture - As of August 29, the prices for sea cucumbers, shrimp, and bass were stable at 90.00 yuan/kg, 320.00 yuan/kg, and 50.00 yuan/kg respectively [57]. - For freshwater products, the price of grass carp was 16.73 yuan/kg, up 0.54%, while the prices for crucian carp and carp showed slight fluctuations [57]. Crop and Grain Processing - As of August 29, the spot price for soybeans was 4005.79 yuan/ton, with corn and wheat prices at 2364.71 yuan/ton and 2428.89 yuan/ton respectively, showing slight declines [65]. - The report indicates that the prices for various mushroom products remained stable during the same period [65].

证券之星消息，9月2日饲料板块较上一交易日下跌0.09%，路德环境领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3858.13，下跌0.45%。深证成指报收于12553.84，下跌2.14%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 832419 | 路斯股份 | 20.70 | 1.02% | 2.50万 | 5131.56万 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 61.27 | 0.82% | 5.59万 | - 3.43 Z | | 001366 | 播恩集团 | 12.69 | 0.55% | 3.49万 | 4367.54万 | | 002100 | 天康生物 | 6.73 | 0.45% | 44.17万 | 2.95 Z | | 603609 | 禾丰股份 | 8.62 | 0.23% | 5.69万 | 4883.88万 | | 002548 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed a slight decline today, with the Consumer ETF (159928) experiencing a minor pullback, and trading volume exceeding 620 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF has seen significant net subscriptions, with 84 million units purchased during the day and nearly 500 million yuan attracted yesterday, totaling over 3.4 billion yuan in the last ten days [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) remained stable, with trading volume surpassing 28 million yuan, and has seen net inflows on 6 out of the last 10 days, accumulating over 18 million yuan [3] - Key stocks in this ETF include Lao Pu Gold and Midea Group, both rising over 2%, while Li Ning fell over 1% [3] Group 3: Sector Performance - The liquor sector showed strong performance in Q2, with leading brand Moutai maintaining steady growth, while other companies began to clear inventory and adjust product structures [5] - The condiment sector, particularly Haitian, demonstrated resilience, while the frozen food market is stabilizing despite competitive pressures [6] - The new consumption sector is expected to see steady performance, driven by high demand, with tea beverage companies benefiting from the delivery market [6] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Outlook - In the livestock sector, policies are guiding capacity reduction, with expectations for pig prices to rise as production capacity decreases [7] - The planting sector faces challenges from extreme weather, but there are positive expectations for global crop production and pricing, particularly for wheat and soybeans [7] Group 5: ETF Composition and Strategy - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a strong index with over 68% of its top ten holdings, including four leading liquor stocks accounting for 32% and major pig farming companies at 15% [8] - The Hong Kong Consumer 50 ETF (159268) is positioned as an efficient investment choice for the new consumption sector, supporting T+0 trading and not occupying QDII quotas [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing high-quality development with significant policy transformations aimed at protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation. Future growth stocks will likely focus on technological content and innovative models that balance farmer interests [4][12] - The overall profitability of listed pig companies has significantly increased due to a stable pig price year-on-year and a substantial decrease in costs. Although pig prices may face pressure in the second half of the year, the trend of improving efficiency suggests that profitability will remain strong [4][12] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that force breeding farms to reduce capacity. Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to gain market share [5][13] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which is expected to see growth due to improved management and increased capacity utilization [6][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a concentration of market share among leading brands, with potential growth opportunities for mid-tier brands. The impact of tariffs on exports is expected to diminish over time [7][16] - The agricultural sector is closely monitoring the effects of US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of tightening soybean supply and potential price increases for soybean meal [8][17] Summary by Sections 1. Swine - Latest pig price is 13.70 CNY/kg (down 0.01 CNY/kg month-on-month), with an average slaughter weight of 127.83 kg (down 0.15 kg month-on-month) and a price of 445 CNY for 15 kg piglets (down 18 CNY month-on-month). Short-term price declines may be due to policy-driven weight reductions [3][12] - The industry is undergoing profound policy transformations, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and stimulating innovation. Companies with cost advantages and strong connections with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][12][13] 2. Poultry - As of September 1, the price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 3.45 CNY/piece (down 5.5% month-on-month) and the price of broiler chickens is 3.55 CNY/kg (down 1.39% month-on-month) [5][13] - The white feather chicken industry is facing ongoing challenges of high capacity and weak consumption, leading to a reduction in breeding capacity among chicken farms [5][13] 3. Feed - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which is expected to benefit from industry recovery and improved management effects [6][14] 4. Pets - The pet industry is characterized by a stable four-brand dominance, with increasing concentration expected. The impact of tariffs on exports is anticipated to lessen, and leading companies are expected to maintain high growth rates [7][16] 5. Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is closely watching the impact of US-China trade negotiations, with expectations of tightening soybean supply and potential price increases for soybean meal [8][17] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4497, up 2.71% from the previous week, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index closed at 3001, up 2.02% [18][21]